Banks kick off the U.S. earnings season

Banks kick off the U.S. earnings season

Earnings, trading, and margins in focus amid an uncertain macro backdrop

Major banks open the earnings season

As tradition holds, the earnings season on Wall Street begins with the financial sector. The first Q1 2026 results are due between April 13 and 15, with major U.S. banking giants leading the way.

Among the most anticipated names are JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. All releases are scheduled before the opening bell, highlighting the sector’s systemic importance.

According to leading investment firms, including Bank of America, the overall picture remains moderately positive, with results expected to be “in line with or above expectations” for the major groups.

What to expect: solid earnings but cautious guidance

The backdrop for this earnings season is complex. On one hand, fundamentals remain strong:

• trading revenues rising (estimated +13.8% year-on-year)
• resilient investment banking (+21.3%)
• still-favorable net interest margins

On the other hand, cautionary factors are emerging:

• concerns about economic slowdown
• stagflation risks
• uncertainty around monetary policy

These elements could lead management teams to maintain cautious guidance for the remainder of 2026, even in the presence of solid results.

Recent results: mixed signals in the banking sector

The latest available data (end of 2025) provide useful insights for interpreting the current season.

• JPMorgan Chase reported strong results, with earnings and revenues above expectations thanks to trading and investment banking.
• Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo showed growth in earnings and revenues, but with issues tied to extraordinary items and results falling short of market expectations.

The picture is therefore mixed: solid figures but more demanding market expectations, with strong focus on surprises versus consensus estimates.

Focus on key drivers for Q1 2026

Investors will focus in particular on three elements:

1. Net interest income (NII)
Crucial for retail banks, in a context of still-high but stable interest rates.

2. Trading and markets activity
Recent volatility could support revenues from market divisions.

3. Investment banking
Signs of a rebound in deal-making (M&A and IPOs) could strengthen results.

Overall, the financial sector remains the first real test of earnings resilience across the entire S&P 500.

Key calendar of major U.S. earnings releases

Below are the key dates of the season:

Financial sector (kick-off)

• April 13: Goldman Sachs
• April 14: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock
• April 15: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

Technology and growth

• April 16: Netflix
• April 22: Tesla
• April 24: Alphabet (Google)
• April 30: Meta, Microsoft
• May 1: Amazon, Apple

Other major companies

• May 20: Nvidia
• May 21: Target

In summary

The Q1 2026 earnings season opens with encouraging signals, though not without risks. As always, banks will act as a litmus test: if results confirm earnings resilience, they could support equity markets.

Otherwise, any disappointments—especially regarding forward guidance—could reignite volatility on Wall Street.