Gold above 4,130: Fed and geopolitics support the trend

Gold above 4,130: Fed and geopolitics support the trend

The precious metal consolidates near record highs amid FOMC minutes, energy inflation and institutional demand

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Gold opens the week of July 7 holding near record highs, trading around $4,130 per ounce. After a first half of the year dominated by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions and the gradual scaling back of expectations for U.S. interest rates, the market is now entering a decisive phase.

Fundamentals: central banks and strategic demand

Structural demand continues to represent the main support for the gold market.

Emerging-market central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves as part of a broader diversification away from the dollar, while institutional investors maintain significant exposure to the metal as a hedge against geopolitical instability and persistent inflation.

Elements of uncertainty also remain on the international front, with particular attention on relations between the United States and Iran, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the possible repercussions for the global energy market.

Macroeconomic scenario

The focus of the week will be the FOMC minutes.

Market participants are looking for indications on the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy following recent signs of a slowdown in the labor market.

A more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could provide further support to the sector, while resilient macroeconomic data and elevated yields would continue to limit gold’s upside potential.

Technical analysis

From a chart perspective, the outlook remains constructive.

The 4,125–4,130 area represents the main operational pivot.

As long as prices remain above this level, the bullish scenario remains intact.

The first resistance levels are located between $4,150 and $4,170.

A confirmed close above $4,170 would open the way toward $4,200 and subsequently $4,250.

On the downside, any profit-taking could push prices back toward $4,100 and then into the $4,060–4,055 area.

Sentiment

Sentiment remains moderately positive.

Central bank interest, demand for geopolitical hedging and the prospect of a less restrictive Fed continue to support the market.

In the short term, the $4,170 threshold represents the most important technical level to confirm a new bullish acceleration.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for informational and financial analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or personalized recommendations. Investments involve risks, including the possible loss of invested capital.