Macro week: the market thermometer (22–26/9)

Macro week: the market thermometer (22–26/9)
Flash PMIs, PCE, GDP, durable goods, jobless claims and the EIA: what to expect and how rates, equities and FX might react

A “thermometer” week

September enters its decisive phase: the flash PMIs will tell us whether the post-summer momentum is holding; in the US we’ll get durable goods orders, PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and the third estimate of Q2 GDP; in between, Wednesday’s EIA will take stock of oil demand/inventories after a very large crude draw that still failed to lift prices. All this sits against a backdrop of US growth that’s resilient but not exuberant, and a labor market that’s cooling in an orderly way.

On the agenda (highlights & CEST times)

• Flash PMIs (Sep.)
  • Euro Area Tue 23/09 – 10:30 (08:30 UTC)
  • United Kingdom Tue 23/09 – 14:45 (13:45 BST)
  • United States Tue 23/09 – 15:45 (13:45 UTC)
  • Japan Wed 24/09 (overnight CEST)
  (standard S&P Global release windows)
• USA – Durable Goods (Aug): Thu 25/09 – 14:30. Advance report confirmed by Census.
• USA – GDP Q2 (third estimate): Thu 25/09 – 14:30 (BEA).
• USA – Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) incl. PCE/Core PCE: Fri 26/09 – 14:30 (BEA).
• USA – Initial Jobless Claims (week to 20/09): Thu 25/09 – 14:30.
• USA – Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Sep, final): Fri 26/09 – 16:00 (10:00 ET).
• EIA – Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Wed 24/09 – 16:30 (10:30 ET).

Where we stand now: the snapshot

The latest readings suggest US manufacturing isn’t booming but isn’t contracting either: in August, industrial production rose +0.2% m/m thanks to autos, though capacity utilization remains below its long-run average. The labor market has less oomph: initial claims fell to 231k after a transitory spike, signaling cooling without cracks. On energy, the EIA just reported a 9.3 million-barrel crude draw and a build in distillates—gasoline and crude inventories down, diesel up.

Recent key numbers

• PCE headline YoY (July) 2.6%; Core around ~2.9%. Next update 26/09.
• US GDP Q2 (second estimate) +3.3% annualized; the third estimate will refine composition and profits.
• Oil: next WPSR 24/09 after the 17/09 draw; Brent remained weak despite the data.

What consensus expects (base case)

If PMIs hold above 50 across developed economies, the narrative remains one of moderate, services-led growth, with manufacturing only gradually recovering. For durable goods (Aug), markets look for a weak headline on transports and a more resilient ex-transport; for PCE, the bar sits near 2.6% YoY (core just under 3%). The third GDP estimate shouldn’t move the needle.

Implications “if things go to plan”

• Rates: yields steady/slightly higher on the long end; gradual Fed easing pricing underpinned by PCE.
• Equities: mild support for growth/quality; cyclicals okay if manufacturing PMIs tick up.
• FX: USD reactive but trendless; EUR/GBP driven by domestic PMI tone.
• Commodities: oil range-bound if inventories normalize. (Synthesis based on calendar/consensus.)

The “hinges” that can move markets

The beauty—and risk—of such a packed week is that a few decimals can change the mood.

If data disappoints

• PMIs below 50 in the Euro Area/UK or a marked US drop → risk-off, yields down, USD as haven.
• Durable goods very negative and ex-transport in the red → concerns on capex/manufacturing, pressure on cyclicals and banks.
• Core PCE ≤2.7% YoY or 0.1% m/m → duration rally, more room for additional Fed cuts.
• Claims jumping again → demand worries; reinforces the “labor market cooling” narrative.

If data surprises on the upside

• PMIs well above 52 → yields up, rotation toward cyclicals; USD firmer.
• Durable goods >0% m/m with solid ex-transport → “resilient capex” story supporting earnings.
• Core PCE ≥3.0% YoY or 0.3% m/m → “sticky inflation” back in focus, curve flattens, easing path slows.
• EIA with a sizable distillates build or weak demand → oil under pressure, growth-scare risk for cycle-sensitive sectors.

A practical guide to follow the releases

The BEA calendar confirms GDP on Thu 25/09 and PCE on Fri 26/09; Census releases durable goods Thursday morning (ET); S&P Global sets PMIs Tuesday (EU/UK/US) and Wednesday (JP); EIA as usual Wednesday 16:30 CEST barring exceptions. Keep an eye on Michigan consumer sentiment Friday 16:00.

Where to find data and consensus, fast

• TradingEconomics for the agenda and updated consensus.
• BEA/FRED for official series on PCE, GDP, and income/spending.
• S&P Global for PMI schedules and commentary.
• EIA (plus wire flashes) for oil/inventory dynamics.