Central bank and US earnings reports shape a month could move the Nas100 and Treasuries, with knock-on effects for gold
October 2026 opens with markets caught in a precarious balance between two opposing forces.
On one side are growth and investment linked to artificial intelligence. On the other is persistent inflation, which could keep central banks in restrictive mode. For this reason, October 2026’s economic calendar will be viewed primarily through the lens of real yields and the US dollar. Rate expectations will also matter.
The starting point is more “hawkish” than it was a few months ago. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. In its official statement, the central bank cited solid economic activity and elevated inflation, underscoring the need to bring inflation back to 2% more quickly. The next meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, according to the 2026 FOMC calendar. The role of interest rates and central banks in markets is also covered in our article on 2026 bonds, interest rates and geopolitical risks.
US data also help explain the Fed’s caution. In August, payrolls increased by 162,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Hourly wages were up 3.1% year over year. On prices, CPI inflation stands at 3.4% year over year, with core CPI at 2.4%. Core PCE is at 3.3%, while second-quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.5% annualized.
Views on interest rates nevertheless remain mixed. According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs has pointed to the risk of another Fed rate hike in October. In the market snapshot on September 17, the implied probability of a hike was around 53%, with opinions still divided. A practical rule follows: in October, markets will react more to the gap between the data and expectations than to the data alone.
The October 2026 macroeconomic calendar
The dates in the table are those listed on official calendars available as of September 21.
Analysts’ consensus estimates may change in the days leading up to each release. Where there is not yet a stable estimate, the table identifies the variable to watch.
| Date | Event and current status | Expected reading and sentiment | Potential effect on NAS100 and gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1 | US manufacturing ISM. The latest reading is 54.6, in expansion territory. ISM calendar | The market expects the index to remain above 50. Particular attention will be paid to new orders and employment, as well as prices paid. | A strong reading with falling prices would support NAS100. If strength comes alongside elevated prices, yields and the dollar could rise, weighing on NAS100 and gold. A downside surprise would favor gold if it lowers real rates. |
| October 2 | US payrolls and unemployment for September. The previous picture remains resilient, with 162,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%. BLS calendar | The consensus expects a gradual moderation in the labor market. A very strong reading would revive the prospect of a Fed rate hike. A very weak reading would instead raise recession concerns. | Payrolls above expectations would pressure NAS100 through higher yields. Gold could initially weaken as the dollar and rates rise, followed by defensive buying. Payrolls below expectations, without signs of recession, would be a positive scenario for both. |
| October 2 | Euro-area flash inflation for September. The ECB has just raised its deposit rate to 2.50%. For 2026, it forecasts inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%. ECB decision and projections | Sentiment points to an ECB that remains alert to inflation risks, even with fragile growth. | Euro-area inflation above consensus would push Bund yields and global yields higher, putting pressure on NAS100. Gold would find support only if geopolitical risk takes precedence. Falling inflation would bring relief to equities and support gold. |
| October 5 | US services ISM. The latest reading is 55.4, with activity at 61.7 and new orders at 60.9. Employment is at 47.8, while prices have reached 72.6. ISM Services | The mix points to continued strong growth. On the other hand, price pressures and weaker employment weigh on the picture. The consensus will look for confirmation of a “soft landing.” | Activity above expectations and falling prices would be an ideal combination for NAS100. Strong activity alongside persistent prices would make the market more hawkish, pushing yields higher and weighing on gold. |
| October 7 | Minutes of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. They will be the first test of how broad the majority in favor of further tightening is. | The main risk is “higher for longer” language focused on inflation and energy. Inflation expectations will also be watched. | Hawkish minutes would leave NAS100 more vulnerable because tech companies have long-duration valuations. Gold would be hurt by real yields, unless defensive demand steps in. A more cautious tone would have the opposite effect. |
| October 12–18 | Annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok. There is no numerical consensus for this event, which will focus on the global outlook and debt. Trade and financial stability will also be discussed. World Bank Annual Meetings 2026 | Markets will look for signals on global growth and trade fragmentation, as well as geopolitical risks. | Comments pointing to a slowdown or instability would support gold and Treasuries but could weigh on NAS100. A constructive outlook would help equities and cyclical commodities. |
| October 14 | US September CPI and Chinese CPI/PPI. The previous US reading was 3.4%, with core at 2.4%. China’s recent picture still shows fragile demand. BLS CPI and NBS calendar | In the US, markets want inflation to fall without growth breaking down. In China, the goal is stabilization near the 50 threshold and a return to positive inflation. | US CPI above consensus would lift yields and the dollar, pressuring NAS100 and weighing on gold. A softer CPI would favor NAS100 and gold. Weak Chinese data would weigh on semiconductors and industrial commodities, but could support gold as a safe haven. |
| October 15 | US PPI and September retail sales. These releases help distinguish inflation from real demand. BLS calendar and Census Economic Indicators | The consensus is likely to favor more moderate producer prices. Consumer spending is expected to remain positive, though less buoyant. | Strong retail sales with contained PPI would point to a constructive scenario for NAS100. Strong sales with high PPI would raise the risk of another hawkish repricing. Weak sales would favor gold if yields fall, while NAS100 would respond well only if the slowdown remains far from recession. |
| October 19 | China’s third-quarter GDP and activity indicators. A PMI below 50 still signals a fragile cyclical base. The annual growth target remains the policy benchmark. NBS calendar | There is not yet a single reliable consensus for quarterly GDP. Markets will compare the figure with the growth target and any measures to support consumption and property. Credit will also be a factor to watch. | A sharp slowdown would weigh on NAS100 through semiconductors and the AI supply chain, as well as copper and oil. Gold could benefit from demand for protection. A positive surprise would support equities and cyclical commodities. |
| October 27 | Durable goods orders and new home sales, on the same day the FOMC meeting begins. The data measure investment and the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates. Census | The consensus points to slower growth, but not recessionary conditions. Markets may react more to the start of the Fed meeting than to the individual data releases. | Strong orders and housing data could support NAS100 only if yields remain under control. Weak but orderly data would support gold and expectations of a more cautious Fed. |
| October 28 | Fed decision and press conference, alongside the Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report. The Fed starts from 3.75%–4.00%, while the BoC kept its rate at 2.25% in September. Fed calendar and BoC calendar | The market remains divided between another Fed hike and a pause. In Canada, the debate centers on inflation and energy, alongside the risk of a slowdown. | A more hawkish Fed would be the most negative scenario for NAS100 and for gold, given its sensitivity to real rates. A pause accompanied by a dovish tone would support both. Gold could outperform if geopolitical risk rises. |
| October 29 | ECB decision and advance US third-quarter GDP. Personal income and September PCE are also released that day, while the BoJ meeting begins. The ECB meets on October 28–29. ECB calendar and BEA calendar | The consensus will need to weigh US growth and PCE inflation while also accounting for European policy. The ECB has said it does not want to commit in advance to a particular path. Markets are nevertheless keeping the risk of further hikes on the table. | GDP and PCE above expectations would push yields higher and could compress NAS100. Softer PCE alongside stable growth would be the best mix for tech. Weak data and falling yields would favor gold. |
| October 30 | US third-quarter Employment Cost Index and BoJ decision. On September 18, the BoJ raised its rate to 1.25%, with a 7–2 vote. Analysts expect further increases in 2027, but the path remains data-dependent. BoJ calendar | Markets will look for US wage growth consistent with disinflation. The BoJ is expected to normalize policy while preserving yen and carry-trade stability. | A high ECI and a hawkish BoJ could lift global yields and weigh on NAS100. A more cautious BoJ would reduce the risk of a carry-trade unwind. Gold could rise if risk aversion takes hold. |
| October 31 | China’s manufacturing PMI. The latest official data cited by the calendar showed manufacturing, services and the composite index below 50. NBS PMI | The consensus will look for a rebound toward 50, supported by credit, consumption and property measures. | A PMI below 50 would pressure cyclical NAS100 stocks and semiconductors, as well as industrial commodities, while potentially supporting gold. A PMI above 50 would improve risk appetite and support copper and growth-related stocks. |
October 2026 earnings reports: when the season begins and which companies matter
Earnings season gets under way gradually. The first major event is Accenture on October 1. Its results, however, cover the fourth quarter of its fiscal year, which differs from the third calendar quarter reported by most US companies.
The busiest period runs from October 13 to 15, with major banks and the first signals from the semiconductor supply chain.
| Window | Companies and date status | What to watch and potential market impact |
|---|---|---|
| October 1 | Accenture, with the date listed on its IR events calendar. Fiscal Q4. | Focus on IT spending and cloud consulting, as well as demand for AI projects. Weak guidance could revive doubts about the returns on AI investment and weigh on NAS100. Gold would react only indirectly, through any resulting risk-off move. Accenture IR |
| October 13 | JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, with dates announced. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are expected in the same window, subject to confirmation on their respective IR sites. | For banks, the key factors are net interest margins and credit quality, along with trading and investment-banking revenue. Solid results would support sentiment on the economic cycle. Higher provisions, by contrast, would raise slowdown concerns and could push gold higher. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo |
| October 14 | Bank of America, with its third-quarter earnings date listed by IR. BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and other financial companies are also worth watching that week. | Sensitivity centers on the Treasury yield curve and consumer credit, as well as market activity. The effect on NAS100 is indirect, but becomes important if results change expectations for US growth. Bank of America Investor Relations |
| October 14–15 | ASML and TSMC, in a window expected based on the sector calendar. The exact dates should be checked on their respective IR sites. | These are among the most important names for NAS100. Key factors include equipment orders and advanced production capacity, as well as demand for AI accelerators, margins and export restrictions. Positive guidance could support the entire semiconductor sector. A disappointment could increase volatility in gold and the dollar as risk-off sentiment spreads. ASML IR and TSMC IR |
| October 20–23 | Netflix and Tesla, with Intel in the same indicative window. As of September 21, some exact dates had yet to be published on the companies’ IR sites. | Netflix will be assessed on subscribers and advertising, as well as margins. For Tesla, attention will focus on deliveries and margins, alongside investment. Intel will be assessed on foundry and manufacturing processes amid strong competition. NAS100’s reaction will depend mainly on guidance. If earnings expectations are sharply revised, gold could benefit from risk-off sentiment. |
| October 21 | IBM, with its third-quarter results listed as a preliminary event on the IR calendar. | Cloud and software, as well as infrastructure and AI monetization. Better guidance would support the AI narrative. Rising costs and capex without revenue growth could have the opposite effect. IBM Investor Events |
| October 22–23 | Barclays on October 22 and Signify on October 23, with dates listed on their respective calendars. | Barclays offers insight into European credit and banking activity. Signify is an indicator of industrial and property demand. The direct effect on NAS100 is limited, but the results are useful for assessing the global cycle and demand for goods. Barclays and Signify |
| October 27–30 | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple and AMD, in the expected window for Big Tech earnings. Exact dates should be confirmed on the companies’ IR sites. | Cloud and digital advertising, hardware sales and margins will be in focus. AI capex will be central. NAS100 could rise if earnings and guidance beat consensus. It could also fall after an earnings “beat” if AI investment grows faster than revenue. Gold would react only indirectly, through yields and the dollar, or a change in risk appetite. Microsoft IR, Alphabet, Amazon IR, Apple IR and AMD IR |
| October 29 | Schneider Electric, with its third-quarter results listed on the financial calendar. | Data centers and electrification, along with energy management, offer a cross-sector view of the AI boom and infrastructure investment. Schneider Electric IR |
Companies most sensitive to October’s calendar
The companies with the greatest exposure can be grouped into four areas.
• US and European banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Barclays
• Semiconductors and AI infrastructure, including ASML, TSMC, AMD, Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Schneider Electric
• Digital platforms and consumer companies, including Meta, Apple, Netflix and Tesla
• Cyclical and industrial companies, including IBM and Signify, as well as data-center suppliers and providers of energy and automation solutions
For Big Tech, earnings per share will be only one of the metrics under scrutiny. The market will want to know whether growth in cloud and advertising revenue justifies the increase in AI capex. Other questions concern margins and how long demand for infrastructure will last.
Possible scenarios for NAS100 and gold
| Scenario | NAS100 | Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation above consensus and hawkish central banks | Pressure on growth stock valuations, with greater volatility. | Weakness linked to rising real yields and the dollar, with a possible recovery if geopolitical risk emerges. |
| Disinflation with growth still positive | Falling yields and solid earnings support NAS100. | A positive scenario, especially with a weaker dollar and expectations of rate cuts. |
| Orderly slowdown and earnings above expectations | An initially positive reaction, provided recession fears remain at bay. | A mixed move, with possible support from lower rates. |
| Geopolitical shock or sharp slowdown in China | Pressure on NAS100 and semiconductors. | Safe-haven demand strengthens, with gold potentially rising even when yields are elevated. |
The relationship between the two assets follows complex dynamics. Gold rises in only some cases when NAS100 falls. If the correction is driven by rising real yields, the metal may also come under pressure.
When systemic risk and geopolitical tensions take precedence, safe-haven demand can offset the effect of interest rates. The same applies during a loss of confidence.
Algo trading and market analysis with 4FT Invest
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To follow October 2026 more effectively, it helps to pair the calendar with a few checks. First, compare each release with consensus. Next, watch how yields and the dollar react. Finally, compare volatility with the technical structure of NAS100 and gold. Discover 4FT Invest.
The information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation to invest or a guarantee of results. Dates and estimates may be updated by the publishing organizations and companies.
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