Gold: Support Tested by Yields

Analysis updated October 2, 2026, ahead of the U.S. labor-market report.

The daily chart shows an attempt to stabilize after the decline, but the recovery has not yet turned the technical picture into a clear bullish reversal. After breaking above the descending trendline, gold reached resistance before giving back part of its gains. It is now testing an area where buyers had previously stepped in.

Support is being tested, not confirmed

The formation of a base and the subsequent rebound are constructive signs. A return to support may indicate that selling pressure is easing, a pattern sometimes seen during periods of supply absorption. However, the test alone does not confirm that the market has resumed an uptrend.

For the outlook to improve, support should hold on daily closes and the pullback should lose momentum. A stronger bullish reaction and a break above the rebound highs and the horizontal resistance marked on the chart would then be needed. Until those signals appear, the sequence of lower highs since the recent peak continues to warrant caution.

A move below support, especially if accompanied by wider bearish candles and increased activity, would weaken the recovery scenario and raise the risk of a renewed decline.

Yields and the dollar remain headwinds

Spot gold at $4,181.59 per ounce at 08:33 GMT, down more than 2% for the week. A stronger dollar and elevated yields were weighing on the metal as markets awaited U.S. employment data.

On September 16, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2002. Higher rates and yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

The U.S. employment report for September is due today at 14:30 Italian time. Reuters’ consensus forecast calls for 90,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Markets assign about a 28% probability to another Fed rate hike at its October meeting. Weaker-than-expected data could reduce expectations for restrictive monetary policy and support gold; a positive surprise could lift the dollar and yields, putting support to the test.

Geopolitical risks and long-term demand

Tensions in the Middle East may encourage purchases of gold as a safe-haven asset. The effect is not automatic, however: if the conflict pushes energy prices and inflation expectations higher, yields could remain elevated and weigh on gold in the short term.

Central-bank purchases provide structural support. According to the World Gold Council, net purchases rose to 289 tonnes in the second quarter, compared with a revised estimate of 57 tonnes in the first. Official demand and reserve diversification support the broader outlook, though corrective phases remain possible.

Overall, the chart points to an important support area but does not yet provide robust confirmation of a reversal. Holding support and overcoming nearby resistance would strengthen the recovery scenario; a break below support would weaken it.

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. This article does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.