Gold and Nasdaq Face the Hormuz Test

Gold and Nasdaq Face the Hormuz Test

Energy inflation, the Fed, and corporate earnings are reshaping the balance of global markets

The week beginning July 13 opens with a market environment that looks dramatically different from just two weeks ago. After several weeks dominated by artificial intelligence and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve, investors are once again confronting a scenario that seemed to belong to the past: systemic geopolitical risk.

The renewed escalation between the United States and Iran, culminating in last weekend's attacks and Tehran's renewed threat to restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has once again placed energy prices at the center of investors' attention. At the same time, the latest Federal Reserve minutes confirmed that policymakers continue to adopt a cautious stance on interest rates, while the earnings season is about to open a new chapter for the technology sector.

For investors, the key question is no longer simply whether the U.S. economy will slow, but rather which force will ultimately prevail: energy-driven inflation, corporate earnings, or monetary policy.

Macroeconomic Outlook

This week's economic calendar is one of the most important of the quarter.

Market attention will focus on four key events:

Inflation remains the defining variable.

Should the CPI surprise to the upside, markets could begin pricing in a delay to future Federal Reserve rate cuts, increasing pressure particularly on growth stocks.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected inflation would likely support a recovery in the Nasdaq while simultaneously pushing Treasury yields lower.

Geopolitical Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz currently represents the most significant systemic geopolitical risk facing global financial markets.

Approximately 20% of global oil supply and a substantial share of international liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade pass through this strategic waterway.

For the time being, markets are not pricing in a complete closure of the Strait.

Instead, investors appear to be assuming:

• slower shipping traffic;

• higher maritime insurance premiums;

• increased Western military presence;

• greater volatility across energy markets.

A prolonged and effective disruption of maritime traffic would dramatically alter expectations regarding global inflation and future monetary policy.

Nasdaq: Markets Continue to Believe in AI

Fundamental Analysis

Despite the deterioration in the geopolitical environment, the technology sector continues to benefit from a structurally positive investment narrative.

Artificial Intelligence remains the primary driver of global capital expenditure.

Demand for advanced computing infrastructure, next-generation semiconductors, cloud services, and hyperscale data centers continues to grow at a pace exceeding market expectations.

This does not imply that risks have disappeared.

Valuation multiples remain historically elevated, meaning that any increase in real interest rates can rapidly compress technology valuations.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming earnings season will represent the first major test of the second half of the year.

Investors will be looking for confirmation that Big Tech companies can successfully translate their enormous AI investments into sustained earnings growth and stronger cash flows.

Technical Analysis

Primary Trend: Bullish

Short-Term Trend: Consolidation

The market maintains a constructive structure as long as prices remain above the 29,400 area.

A daily close above 29,700 would significantly increase the probability of another attempt to challenge the 30,000 psychological level.

Conversely, a break below 29,150 would hand control back to sellers.

Gold: The Safe Haven Faces the Fed Test

Fundamental Analysis

Gold continues to benefit from three major structural drivers:

• record purchases by central banks;

• persistent geopolitical tensions;

• demand for currency diversification.

At the same time, however, the precious metal must contend with a resilient U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields.

This balance between defensive demand and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets explains gold's relative resilience despite the significant deterioration in the global geopolitical landscape.

Technical Analysis

Primary Trend: Bullish

Short-Term Trend: Consolidation Above Breakout

A confirmed breakout above 4,170 would validate the continuation of the primary bullish trend.

Conversely, a decline below 4,100 would likely trigger profit-taking toward the 4,060 area.

Base Scenario (55%)

• Hormuz remains open, although with significant operational restrictions.

• Brent crude trades between $80 and $90 per barrel.

• Nasdaq continues to consolidate.

• Gold maintains its bullish structure.

Bullish Scenario (25%)

• Geopolitical tensions ease.

• U.S. CPI comes in below expectations.

• Treasury yields decline.

• Nasdaq moves back above 30,000.

• Gold consolidates above 4,170.

Bearish Scenario (20%)

• Military escalation intensifies.

• Brent crude rises above $90 per barrel.

• Inflation expectations increase.

• U.S. Treasury yields break above recent highs.

• Nasdaq enters a corrective phase.

• Market volatility rises sharply.

Key Indicators to Monitor

To determine which scenario is likely to prevail during the week, investors should closely monitor:

• Brent Crude Oil

• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

• CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

• Gold ETF Flows

• Nasdaq Advance/Decline Line

• Copper prices, a leading indicator of global economic activity

Together, these indicators provide an almost real-time picture of investor sentiment and overall risk appetite.

Bottom Line

Global markets enter the second half of July facing two competing narratives.

On one side remains the conviction that Artificial Intelligence will continue to drive earnings growth for the world's leading technology companies.

On the other, rising geopolitical tensions and the potential resurgence of energy-driven inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than markets currently anticipate.

For the Nasdaq, holding above the 29,400 area will represent the first major test of investor confidence.

For gold, a sustained move above $4,170 would provide strong technical confirmation that the long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, a personalized recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the potential loss of part or all of the capital invested.