How the new macroeconomic data could reshape European and global outlooks, as well as the EUR/GBP trend
12/08/2025: UK Unemployment and Eurozone ZEW in the Spotlight
How new macroeconomic data could reshape European and global outlooks, as well as the EUR/GBP trend
What the indicators are
UK Unemployment
This indicator represents the percentage of unemployed individuals within the labor force. It is essential for assessing the state of the job market, inflationary pressures, and monetary policy decisions (Bank of England).
Eurozone ZEW Index
The ZEW Index gathers the expectations of around 350 analysts and institutional investors regarding the Eurozone’s economic growth over the next six months. A value above zero indicates optimism; below zero, pessimism. It is a key leading indicator for currency and equity markets.
Current Status and Recent Forecasts
United Kingdom – Unemployment
Latest official figure: 4.7% (Mar–May 2025), the highest level in the past four years.
OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) forecasts: The rate may peak around 4.5% in 2025, with 160,000 more unemployed individuals expected compared to previous estimates. Some analysts, such as Arbuthnot Latham, agree on this upward revision and suggest possible rate cuts in August and November.
Additionally, the BoE has just cut the official rate to 4.0%, signaling economic weakness and a potential further increase in unemployment.
Eurozone – ZEW Index
In July 2025, the actual figure was 36.1, slightly up from June (35.3) but below expectations of 37.8.
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2025. Expectations suggest a possible rise toward 37–38, although no further figures are available at this time.
Macroeconomic Implications
For Europe
UK: Rising unemployment suggests a cooling job market, potential further rate cuts by the BoE, and an uncertain economic outlook.
Eurozone: A rising ZEW would indicate improving expectations and confidence, supporting a more resilient economy and potentially strengthening the euro.
On a Global Scale
Monetary policy divergence (BoE leaning dovish, ECB steady or less accommodative) could drive capital flows toward the Eurozone and weaken the pound.
In a global slowdown scenario, a stronger ZEW could help the euro maintain a relatively stable or favorable profile.
EUR/GBP Outlook
Scenarios Based on Incoming Data:
| Scenario | UK Unemployment | Eurozone ZEW | Impact on EUR/GBP |
|---|---|---|---|
| A – "Soft Euro" | Rises above 4.8% | ZEW below expectations (<37) | Bearish pressure on the EUR; EUR/GBP falls |
| B – "Mixed" | Steady at 4.7% | ZEW in line (~37–38) | Relative stability in the exchange rate |
| C – "Euro Strength" | Stable | ZEW above expectations (>38) | Demand for EUR; EUR/GBP rises |
Technical Analysis (EUR/GBP)
Key support: 0.8400–0.8450 area
Immediate resistance: Around 0.8700
If the data confirms scenario C or falls into the neutral zone, a bullish breakout toward 0.8650–0.8700 could occur.
Conversely, confirming scenario A could test support levels and push the pair down toward 0.8350–0.8300.
Summary
August 12, 2025, will be a key date: rising UK unemployment and a below-expectations ZEW would reinforce the outlook for a weaker euro and relatively stronger pound. Conversely, a recovering Eurozone (ZEW above expectations) and a stable UK job market could favor euro strength against the pound. From a technical standpoint, the key level to watch is 0.8700, which will help assess whether EUR/GBP is entering an upward phase or consolidating/declining.
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