Commodities 2026: Trends Between Geopolitics and Centra

Commodities 2026: Trends Between Geopolitics and Central Banks

Gold, silver, oil and gas amid US–Iran tensions, tariffs, Fed, ECB and macro data in 2026

Commodities 2026: The First Month Overview

In the first month of 2026, commodity markets showed strong momentum, supported by a mix of geopolitical tensions, US trade policies, and expectations surrounding central bank decisions.

Gold, silver, oil and gas returned to the center of investors’ attention, with significant price movements reflecting global uncertainty and new correlations between inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risk.

Gold and Silver: Safe Havens Amid Tariffs and Iran Tensions

Gold posted a gain of over +13% in January, while silver recorded performances close to +19%, supported by growing demand for safe-haven assets.

The move was amplified by:

• New tensions over US tariffs
• Uncertainty surrounding US–Iran negotiations
• Rising global risk aversion

Spot gold prices surpassed the $5,200 per ounce area, signaling a strong “risk-off” component in institutional portfolios.

Silver, being more volatile, benefits both from its safe-haven appeal and its industrial demand outlook.

Oil and Gas: Rebound Between Hormuz and EIA

After the bearish trend of 2025, oil reversed direction in the early months of 2026.

WTI and Brent reached seven-month highs, supported by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area, a strategic hub for global energy trade.

The energy market is currently pricing in:

• Risk of supply disruptions linked to Iran
• US production above 13.3 million barrels per day
• Still cautious OPEC+ policies

Natural gas remains more volatile, influenced by European inventories and seasonal demand.

Macroeconomic Scenario and Monetary Policy: US, EU and UK

United States

• 2025 growth: approximately +2.2%
• Core PCE inflation still above target
• Fed cautious on rate cuts

Markets are pricing in 2–3 possible cuts in 2026, but only in the presence of a structural slowdown in inflation.

Eurozone

• Headline inflation: around 2.7%
• Core CPI: around 2.9%
• Moderate but resilient growth

The ECB maintains a data-dependent approach. If inflation declines toward 2%, the probability of monetary easing in the second half of the year would increase.

United Kingdom

• Inflation: around 3.0%
• Bank Rate: 3.75%

The Bank of England may consider gradual cuts if price dynamics continue to cool.

Upcoming Macro Data: EU Inflation and EIA Report

Eurozone CPI – Trading Economics Consensus

Tomorrow’s release is particularly anticipated.

Trading Economics forecast:

• Headline inflation: 2.5% – 2.6%
• Core CPI: 2.7% – 2.8%

Possible scenarios:

✔ Lower-than-expected inflation → more accommodative ECB → support for gold and real assets
✔ Higher-than-expected inflation → stronger euro, possible pressure on metals

EIA Report – Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Latest data:

• Crude inventories: +3.5 million barrels
• US production: above 13.3 mb/d

Consensus:

• Expected inventories: +1.8 / +2.2 million barrels

Implications:

• Lower-than-expected inventories → bullish extension in oil
• Higher inventories → potential technical correction

Key Correlations 2026

• US tariffs → support for gold and silver
• Iran risk → geopolitical premium on oil
• Fed and ECB policy → impact on the dollar and commodities
• Inflation → primary driver for precious metals

Commodities Outlook 2026

2026 begins with:

• High volatility
• Monetary policies in transition
• Central geopolitical dynamics

Gold and silver may remain supported if real yields decline.
Oil will depend heavily on Iran developments, OPEC+ decisions, and EIA data.

Inflation remains the true barometer of markets.

Summary

4FT Invest Ltd provides advanced technology to trade financial markets using algorithmic systems for both retail and institutional clients, with particular expertise in commodities, indices and forex.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation. Financial markets involve risks. Before investing, independent and informed assessments are required.