AI, falling oil prices and the Fed reshape the week: key levels to watch on Nasdaq, gold and Brent.
Micron Lifts Nasdaq, Gold Remains Under Pressure
AI, falling oil prices and the Fed reshape the week: key levels to watch on Nasdaq, gold and Brent.
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Micron Technology’s quarterly earnings have brought market attention back to the theme that continues to dominate Wall Street: artificial intelligence. After several volatile sessions across semiconductors and technology megacaps, the U.S. memory-chip maker’s results delivered an important signal for Nasdaq, confirming that demand linked to AI infrastructure remains solid.
Micron reported revenue and earnings above expectations, but the most important element for investors was its strong guidance for the next quarter. The market interpreted the update as confirmation that the AI cycle remains intact, especially in its infrastructure component: advanced memory, data centers, high-capacity chips and computing systems for artificial intelligence applications.
The update came at a delicate moment. Nasdaq had just gone through a correction, pressured by concerns over elevated valuations, AI-related capital expenditure and expectations of a still-restrictive Federal Reserve. Micron’s earnings do not remove these risks, but they reopen the debate around real earnings growth in the technology sector.
At the same time, markets are watching two other key assets: gold and oil. Gold has fallen below 4,000 dollars per ounce, a significant technical signal confirming pressure from a strong dollar, a hawkish Fed and higher real yields. Oil, meanwhile, continues to retreat after the reduction of the geopolitical premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent and WTI falling from the stress levels reached in previous sessions.
The result is a divided market: Nasdaq is attempting to recover on the back of the AI theme, gold remains weak because of rates, and oil is signaling a partial normalization of energy risk.
Micron Earnings: Why They Matter for Nasdaq
Micron’s quarterly results are important not only because of the numbers themselves, but because of the message they send to the broader technology sector. After the rally accumulated in recent months by artificial intelligence-linked stocks, investors were looking for concrete confirmation: revenue, orders, margins and visibility.
Micron delivered precisely that kind of confirmation. The market is no longer rewarding all AI-exposed companies indiscriminately. The new phase is more selective: investors are buying companies that can demonstrate real growth and the ability to convert demand into financial results.
For Nasdaq, this means the AI theme remains alive, but with greater focus on earnings quality. The risk is that elevated valuations and higher rates continue to compress multiples. The advantage is that, when earnings confirm growth, the market is still willing to support technology stocks.
Nasdaq Today: AI Rebound, but the Setup Remains Fragile
Nasdaq is moving in a context of opposing forces. On one side, Micron’s earnings support sentiment toward technology and semiconductor stocks. On the other, expectations of a more restrictive Fed remain a headwind for growth stocks.
The operational reference remains QQQ, the ETF often used as a proxy for the Nasdaq 100. QQQ trading around 710 dollars corresponds approximately to a Nasdaq 100 level of 29,100-29,200 points. The market remains below the equilibrium levels seen in previous sessions, but it is attempting to build a base after the correction.
The first support area on the Nasdaq 100 is between 29,000 and 28,900 points. As long as this range holds, the rebound can remain technically valid. A downside break, however, would increase the risk of renewed pressure toward 28,700-28,600 points and then 28,300-28,200 points.
On the upside, the first resistance area is between 29,500 and 29,600 points. The most important level, however, remains 29,800-30,000 points. Only a stable recovery above this range would significantly reduce short-term bearish pressure. Above 30,300-30,500 points, Nasdaq would return to a more solid equilibrium zone. A move back above 30,850-31,000 points would reopen a more constructive technical scenario.
Supports:
29,000-28,900 points
28,700-28,600 points
28,300-28,200 points
27,800-27,600 points
Resistances:
29,500-29,600 points
29,800-30,000 points
30,300-30,500 points
30,850-31,000 points
Gold Below 4,000 Dollars: A Heavy Technical Signal
The most delicate move concerns gold. The break below 4,000 dollars per ounce is an important technical signal, because it confirms that the precious metal is no longer automatically benefiting from safe-haven demand.
In recent sessions, gold has been penalized by three main factors: a strong dollar, expectations of higher rates and a reduced geopolitical premium. When markets start pricing in a more restrictive Federal Reserve, gold suffers because it does not generate yield. With higher real yields, the opportunity cost of holding physical metal or gold-linked instruments increases.
The move below 4,000 dollars also changes the technical picture. The former psychological support now becomes the first resistance. To reduce immediate bearish pressure, gold would first need to recover 4,000-4,020 dollars and then move back above 4,050 dollars. However, the real level to reclaim is 4,100-4,120 dollars, an area that had previously acted as a key support.
As long as price remains below 4,050-4,100 dollars, the bias remains bearish or, at best, sideways-to-bearish. A technical rebound is possible after such a rapid decline, but without a recovery of the main resistance levels it risks being only an oversold reaction.
On the support side, the first range to monitor is 3,975-3,950 dollars. A confirmed break below this area would open the way toward 3,900 dollars. Below that level, the next critical zone is between 3,850 and 3,820 dollars. In the event of a deeper sell-off, the extreme target would be 3,750 dollars.
Supports:
3,975-3,950 dollars
3,900 dollars
3,850-3,820 dollars
3,750 dollars
Resistances:
4,000-4,020 dollars
4,050 dollars
4,100-4,120 dollars
4,185-4,200 dollars
4,225-4,245 dollars
Brent and WTI Oil: The Hormuz Premium Is Fading
Oil tells a different part of the macro story. After the tensions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, the market has started to reduce the geopolitical premium. Brent is trading in the 72-73 dollar-per-barrel area, while WTI remains below the 70-dollar threshold.
The retreat in oil prices is important for the entire financial market. Lower energy prices reduce the risk of renewed inflationary pressure, ease concerns over corporate margins and support growth assets, particularly Nasdaq. At the same time, however, weaker oil also reduces demand for hedging through gold, because it signals that the market is no longer pricing in an immediate energy shock.
On Brent, the first support area is 72-71 dollars. A break below this range would open space toward 70 dollars and then 67-68 dollars. Conversely, a return above 75 dollars would be the first sign of a recovery in the geopolitical premium. Above 78-80 dollars, the market would again start pricing in more significant supply tensions.
On WTI, the 70-dollar threshold remains the immediate reference. As long as price remains below this level, the structure remains weak. The main supports are 68.50-69 dollars and then 66.50-67 dollars. A recovery above 72 dollars would instead signal an initial return of energy risk.
Brent — supports:
72-71 dollars
70 dollars
67-68 dollars
Brent — resistances:
75 dollars
78-80 dollars
83-85 dollars
WTI — supports:
68.50-69 dollars
66.50-67 dollars
WTI — resistances:
70 dollars
72 dollars
75 dollars
Fed, Dollar and AI: What Is Driving Markets
The common thread across today’s market is the relationship between growth, rates and geopolitical risk. Micron has revived interest in Nasdaq and artificial intelligence, but the Fed remains the main risk factor. If markets continue to price in higher rates, technology-sector multiples could remain under pressure.
For gold, the Fed is even more decisive. The yellow metal tends to suffer when the dollar and yields rise. The break below 4,000 dollars shows that, at least for now, investors are favoring dollar liquidity and yield-generating instruments over the protection offered by gold.
Oil, by contrast, is acting as a stabilizer for risk assets. The decline in Brent and WTI reduces the risk of an inflationary shock and helps Nasdaq. But precisely this reduction in the energy premium is contributing to gold’s weakness.
Short-Term Market Outlook
In the short term, the main scenario remains one of selective stabilization. Nasdaq can benefit from Micron’s strong earnings and renewed interest in the AI cycle, but it needs to recover the 29,800-30,000 point area to confirm a technical improvement. Below 28,900 points, the risk of renewed bearish pressure would increase again.
Gold remains the most vulnerable asset. The loss of 4,000 dollars has weakened the technical picture, and recovery must first pass through 4,050-4,100 dollars. Below 3,950 dollars, the market could accelerate toward 3,900 dollars.
Oil remains the thermometer of geopolitical risk. Brent below 75 dollars signals easing energy risk. A return above 78-80 dollars would change the narrative again, bringing the Hormuz premium and supply tensions back to the center of market attention.
The message is clear: Micron supports Nasdaq, lower oil reduces inflation risk, but the Fed continues to weigh on gold. The market has not fully returned to risk-on mode, but it is becoming more disciplined in selecting which assets to reward and which to penalize.
Disclaimer
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