Inflation, GDP and Warsh’s remarks will drive Treasuries and the dollar, leaving the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 exposed to renewe
The week from 24 to 30 August 2026 brings together several of the most market-sensitive events: PCE inflation, the second estimate of US GDP, durable goods orders, labour-market data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The expectations presented below were updated on 24 August. Previous figures come from the relevant statistical authorities, while consensus and forecast figures respectively represent the average estimates of economists and the Trading Economics projection.
Key Events in the United States
All times shown are in Italian time, subject to subsequent calendar changes.
| Date and time | US indicator | Previous | Consensus | TE forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 August, 15:00 | Case-Shiller Home Price Index YoY | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| 25 August, 16:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 91.2 | 90.9 |
| 25 August, 16:00 | New Home Sales | 628,000 | 620,000 | 620,000 |
| 26 August, 14:30 | US GDP, second annualised estimate | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Monthly Core PCE | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Monthly headline PCE | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Annual headline PCE | 3.7% | N/A | 3.7% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Monthly personal income | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Monthly personal spending | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 26 August, 14:30 | Durable goods orders | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 27 August, 14:30 | Initial jobless claims | 206,000 | 208,000 | 210,000 |
| 27 August, 14:30 | Goods trade balance | -$101.4bn | -$99bn | -$100bn |
| 28 August, 15:45 | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57.0 | 56.1 |
| 28 August, 16:00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final | 55.2 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| 28 August, 16:00 | Fed Chair Warsh’s speech | — | — | — |
The greatest concentration of events will come on Wednesday, 26 August, with the simultaneous release of the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits and the Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes the PCE price indices.
PCE: The Main Risk for the Nasdaq 100
The most delicate release will be monthly Core PCE. The consensus expects an increase of 0.2%, but the Trading Economics forecast points to 0.3%, following the previous 0.1%. This divergence highlights a non-negligible inflation risk.
Headline PCE is expected to increase by 0.1% according to the consensus and by 0.2% according to the forecast, following a monthly decline of 0.1%. On an annual basis, Trading Economics projects the rate to remain stable at 3.7%. The BEA confirms that annual PCE inflation rose to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May.
A Core PCE reading of 0.3% or higher could reinforce the view that inflation remains persistent. The most likely initial reaction would be higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, with particularly negative implications for the Nasdaq 100. Technology and growth companies are more sensitive to increases in the discount rate applied to their future earnings.
A reading of 0.1% or lower would instead favour declining yields and could support technology stocks, bonds and gold. The positive effect on equities would be more robust if accompanied by continued growth in consumer spending, preventing disinflation from being interpreted as the consequence of a sharp deterioration in demand.
US GDP: Growth Expected to Be Revised Lower
Both the consensus and forecast for the second GDP estimate stand at an annualised 1.5%, compared with the 2.1% previously reported in the calendar. The official release is scheduled by the BEA for 26 August.
Growth of 1.5% would confirm a significant slowdown, although not necessarily a recessionary one. For the S&P 500, the interpretation will depend primarily on the composition of GDP and the new information on corporate profits.
An upward revision above 1.5%, accompanied by contained PCE inflation, would probably represent the most favourable combination: resilient growth, moderating inflation and reduced pressure on yields.
Conversely, GDP below expectations combined with elevated Core PCE would create the most problematic scenario. The combination of weak growth and persistent inflation would fuel stagflation concerns, simultaneously weighing on growth stocks, cyclical sectors and long-duration bonds.
Durable Goods and Business Investment
Durable goods orders for July are expected to rise by 0.7% according to the consensus and by 0.5% according to the forecast, following the previous 0.3% increase. Excluding transportation, the consensus points to growth of 0.5%, while the forecast stands at 0.3%.
The Census Bureau confirms that the report will be published on 26 August. In the previous month, orders increased by 0.3%, with a 0.6% rise excluding transportation.
A solid reading from the core component would suggest greater resilience in corporate investment and could support industrial companies, semiconductor manufacturers and businesses connected to technology-infrastructure spending. A very strong figure, however, could have an ambiguous effect on the Nasdaq if it drove yields even higher.
Labour Market and Consumers: Signs of Cooling
Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 208,000 according to the consensus and 210,000 according to the forecast, compared with 206,000 previously. The increase would remain limited but would be consistent with a gradual cooling of the labour market.
The preliminary annual revision to nonfarm payrolls will also be released on Friday. The calendar notes that the previous revision removed 911,000 jobs from the original estimate. Another substantial downward correction could strengthen expectations for a less restrictive monetary policy, while also raising doubts about the resilience of economic growth.
The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading is expected to decline to 51 from the previous 55.2. Such a marked deterioration would be negative for consumer-discretionary sectors and companies that are more dependent on domestic spending.
Jackson Hole: The Market Will Judge Warsh
On Friday, 28 August, at 16:00 Italian time, Kevin Warsh will deliver the keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The event is confirmed by the Federal Reserve’s official calendar.
Following Wednesday’s data, the Fed Chair will have the opportunity to clarify how the Committee assesses the relationship between still-elevated inflation, slowing growth and financial conditions. Markets will focus primarily on three aspects:
the Fed’s tolerance for persistently high Core PCE inflation;
the importance assigned to the cooling labour market;
any concerns about long-term yields and credit conditions.
A restrictive message emphasising the need to keep interest rates elevated could push the 10-year Treasury yield higher again. In this scenario, the Nasdaq 100 would be the most vulnerable, while the S&P 500 could find relative support from financial, energy and value sectors.
A more accommodative tone would initially support technology stocks and bonds. However, if the prospect of monetary easing were motivated by a marked deterioration in the economy, the benefit for the S&P 500 could be limited by concerns about corporate earnings.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Key Scenarios
| Macroeconomic scenario | Treasuries and dollar | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE below expectations, GDP close to 1.5% | Yields and dollar decline | Most favourable scenario | Positive, particularly for growth stocks |
| PCE above expectations, resilient GDP | Yields and dollar rise | Pressure on valuations | Rotation towards value and financial stocks |
| Elevated PCE and GDP below 1.5% | Unstable reaction | Most negative scenario | Risk of broad-based selling |
| Contained PCE but very weak economic data | Yields decline | Initial support | Earnings concerns limit gains |
The Nasdaq 100 therefore remains the primary barometer of interest-rate sensitivity. Changes in real yields can produce amplified movements because of the index’s concentration in major technology companies.
The S&P 500 has a more diversified composition, but it is not immune to duration risk. The weight of the largest technology companies also makes the broader index highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations and the sustainability of investment in artificial intelligence.
Europe and Asia Complete the Picture
On Thursday, the ECB will publish the accounts of its latest monetary policy meeting. Preliminary inflation figures for France and Spain will follow on Friday. In Spain, the consensus points to an acceleration in annual inflation to 4.2%, while the Trading Economics forecast stands at 3.8%, compared with the previous 3.6%.
In Japan, the unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%. A speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, scheduled for Thursday, could affect the yen and carry trades. A sudden appreciation of the Japanese currency could trigger deleveraging and temporarily increase volatility across global equity indices.
A Week That Will Be Decided by Combinations
The calendar does not present a single dominant variable. The direction of the markets will be determined by the interaction between PCE inflation, GDP, consumer spending and Federal Reserve guidance.
The most favourable configuration for Wall Street would be moderating inflation accompanied by still-positive growth and consumer spending. The most challenging scenario would instead combine higher-than-expected Core PCE, weak GDP and a restrictive message from Jackson Hole.
In this environment, the 10-year Treasury should be the first market to price in the new macroeconomic balance. Its direction will probably provide the most immediate signal for assessing potential pressure on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.
Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an invitation to invest. Consensus estimates and forecasts may be revised before the data are released.
© 4FT Invest LTD. All rights reserved
