The new week opens with a simultaneous correction in gold and the Nasdaq—two very different assets that share a sensitivity to US real interest rates. At the time of writing, spot gold has dipped below $4,380, first breaching psychological support at 4,400 and subsequently the technical area of 4,395. Nasdaq 100 futures are also trending downward after hitting an intraday low near 29,300 points.
The dominant factor is not a generalized reduction in geopolitical risk, but rather the sharp rise in bond yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed into the 4.78% area—its highest level since early 2025—while Brent crude surpassed $91 per barrel.
The market is thus pricing in a challenging scenario for gold and technology: energy-driven inflation, relatively resilient US growth, and a Federal Reserve that may be forced to raise interest rates once again.
Oil and Fed Trigger the Sell-Off
Tensions between the United States and Iran, along with risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed crude back above $90. Typically, a geopolitical crisis supports gold through safe-haven demand; however, in this phase, the market is placing greater weight on the inflationary consequences of rising energy costs.
Higher oil prices mean increased transportation and production costs, potential inflation spikes, and less room for an accommodating monetary policy. Hawkish recent statements from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have amplified this mechanism.
The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September has climbed to around 65–70%, nearly doubling from pre-Jackson Hole symposium levels. Consequently, the 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 4.78%, while the 2-year yield remains around 4.35%.
The surge in yields simultaneously penalizes:
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Gold, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset;
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The Nasdaq, as it lowers the net present value of growth companies' future earnings;
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Higher valuations across the technology sector;
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Investors' appetite for risk.
Gold Below 4,400: Correction Accelerates
Breaching $4,400 represents a significant technical breakdown. This is no longer merely routine profit-taking: price action has lost a major psychological handle and cleared through the liquidity pool between 4,395 and 4,400.
Selling pressure was further reinforced by the earlier decline below the 200-day moving average, positioned roughly around 4,525–4,530. As long as prices remain below this average, any recoveries are likely to be treated as corrective bounces within a short-term bearish structure.
Gold Technical Levels
| Level |
Interpretation |
| 4,400–4,410 |
Initial resistance following the breakout |
| 4,420–4,440 |
Area required to stabilize price action |
| 4,470–4,480 |
Resistance that would restore equilibrium |
| 4,525–4,530 |
200-day moving average and more credible reversal zone |
| 4,375–4,360 |
First immediate support area |
| 4,345–4,350 |
Primary target following the 4,400 breakdown |
| 4,320 |
Secondary support |
| 4.265–4,270 |
Next downside extension target |
| 4,200–4,220 |
Strategic support in the event of a deep sell-off |
With spot trading below 4,380, the probability of an extension toward 4,350–4,360 is estimated at around 70%, particularly if an hourly candle closes beneath 4,380 and subsequent attempts to reclaim 4,400 are rejected.
A break below 4,345 would open room toward 4,320 and eventually 4,265–4,270. Conversely, a swift return back above 4,400 would suggest a potential false breakout. However, truly neutralizing the bearish momentum would require reclaiming at least 4,440.
Gold’s Geopolitical Paradox
The decline does not imply that gold's defensive appeal has evaporated. US national debt exceeding $40 trillion, central bank buying, Middle East instability, and ongoing concerns over fiscal sustainability continue to underpin the medium-term outlook.
However, the market currently has to decide which risk to price in first:
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If military and financial risks dominate, gold demand rises;
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If inflation risk dominates, real yields climb, pressuring gold;
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If oil and yields rise in tandem, the negative impact of higher rates can temporarily override safe-haven inflows.
This is precisely what is unfolding today. Despite Iran-related tensions, market participants are selling gold because they view the risk of a hawkish Fed as the more pressing threat.
Nasdaq: NVIDIA Isn't Enough Against Treasuries
The Nasdaq correction does not stem from a sudden deterioration in artificial intelligence fundamentals. NVIDIA’s latest earnings confirmed robust demand growth and revenue guidance near 70%, supporting semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and hyperscalers. In the session immediately following its earnings release, the Nasdaq gained 1.57%.
The issue is the valuation multiple investors are paying for that growth. With the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 4.80%, high multiples across tech stocks become harder to justify.
Selling on the Nasdaq consequently reflects:
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An increased discount rate applied to future earnings;
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Fears of a renewed Fed rate-hike cycle;
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High oil prices pressuring corporate margins;
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Already stretched valuations;
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Heavy index concentration in mega-cap tech;
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Risk reduction ahead of upcoming employment data.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Levels
Futures opened around 29,473 points before declining toward 29,300, representing a loss close to 0.7% in available readings.
| Level |
Interpretation |
| 29,500–29,570 |
First resistance and immediate area to reclaim |
| 29,700–29,750 |
Re-establishment of positive momentum |
| 30,000 |
Psychological resistance level |
| 29,300 |
Intraday low and immediate support |
| 29,150–29,200 |
First downside objective |
| 29,000 |
Psychological support level |
| 28,700–28,800 |
Main weekly support zone |
| 28,400–28,500 |
Extended correction target |
Remaining under 29,500 keeps the short-term structure weak. A confirmed break below 29,300 would increase the likelihood of testing 29,150 and eventually 29,000.
Only a sustained recovery above 29,570, followed by a move past 29,700–29,750, would mitigate the risk of a deeper correction and reopen the path toward 30,000.
Upcoming Macroeconomic Data
The coming week features a crucial slate of US economic indicators.
Tuesday, September 1
Releasing at 16:00 CET:
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ISM Manufacturing Index, consensus 55.3 (prior: 55.6);
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ISM Prices Paid component;
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JOLTS Job Openings, expected around 7.3 million;
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Construction Spending.
A stronger-than-expected ISM reading—especially alongside elevated prices paid—would bolster expectations of a Fed rate hike, presenting a headwind for both gold and the Nasdaq.
Conversely, a noticeably weak JOLTS reading could push yields lower and prompt a recovery in both assets. However, an overly sharp contraction might trigger growth concerns, offering relatively stronger support to gold over the Nasdaq.
Wednesday, September 2
At 14:15 CET, the ADP National Employment Report will be released, with consensus looking for 47,000 private-sector jobs added (up from 44,000 prior). Factory Orders and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will follow later in the session.
A significantly stronger-than-expected ADP reading would likely lift the US dollar and yields, applying further pressure to gold and technology. A moderately cooler print would be the most favorable outcome for both risk assets and gold.
Thursday, September 3
Scheduled releases include:
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims;
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Labor Productivity and Unit Labor Costs;
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US Trade Balance;
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Services PMI and ISM Services Index;
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Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
The ISM Services Index will be especially critical given that services comprise the majority of the US economy. Consensus centers near 54.1, unchanged from the prior month.
The Prices Paid component may carry more weight than the headline index; elevated prices combined with resilient employment components would reinforce a hawkish Fed narrative.
Friday, September 4
At 14:30 CET, the official US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. Markets anticipate roughly 50,000 jobs added, following July’s contraction of 23,000 jobs.
Key metrics to watch include:
Potential Market Reactions
| Macro Scenario |
Gold Outlook |
Nasdaq Outlook |
| Employment & wages beat expectations |
Bearish |
Bearish |
| Moderately weak data & slowing wage growth |
Bullish |
Bullish |
| Severely weak employment figures |
Bullish / Safe Haven |
Initially positive, then volatile |
| High ISM prices with solid growth |
Bearish |
Bearish |
| Further rise in oil and yields |
Short-term Bearish |
Strongly Negative |
| Military escalation accompanied by falling yields |
Bullish |
Bearish |
| Iran agreement & falling oil prices |
Uncertain initial reaction |
Bullish |
Outlook for the Remainder of the Week
For gold, losing 4,400 shifts the short-term technical focus down to 4,345–4,360. While the broader structural trend remains intact, sellers retain control over the near term as long as price action stays below 4,440. A break under 4,320 would extend the pullback toward 4,265.
For the Nasdaq, strong AI fundamentals offer underlying support, but they are insufficient to completely offset 10-year yields trading near 4.80%. Below 29,300, moves toward 29,000 and 28,700–28,800 become increasingly probable. A durable recovery will require easing bond yields and a move back above 29,570.
The overarching narrative remains a bond-market-driven correction. Gold and the Nasdaq are only likely to find a firm bottom if upcoming economic data dials back Fed rate hike probabilities, or if safe-haven demand reasserts itself over rising real yields.
Disclaimer: The information provided above is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
