Macro indicators: the markets’ direction today
EU/UK GDP, industrial output and US jobless claims shape Fed expectations and guide choices between stocks and safe havens.
Today, Wednesday, 13 November 2025, financial markets are closely watching a set of macroeconomic indicators from Europe and the United States. Today’s releases mainly concern economic growth (GDP) and industrial production for the Euro Area and the United Kingdom; on the US side, attention is focused on inflation (CPI) and weekly initial jobless claims—indicators that provide key clues on whether the Fed may cut rates in December.
Europe & UK: growth and production
- For the Eurozone, the flash estimate published by Eurostat shows that GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the Euro Area and 0.3% for the European Union.
- For Euro Area industrial production, recent data show a decline to -1.2% MoM in August compared with July (+0.5% MoM) (latest available estimate) and an annual drop to 1.1% YoY in August, down from 2% YoY in July 2025.
- For the United Kingdom, the latest available reading shows a 3.8% year-on-year inflation rate for CPI in September 2025. While GDP grows 1.3% YoY versus more optimistic estimates (1.4% forecast)
- Release schedule for additional indicators: Eurozone industrial production today at 13:00 CET, US macro data with the EIA energy and oil report at 19:00 CET, and at 23:00 CET attention shifts to jobless claims, inflation and CPI.
Interpretation: Eurozone growth remains weak, and industrial production shows signs of contraction or stagnation. This suggests that the European economy is still in “crawling mode” and not accelerating. For the UK, inflation—moderate but still above target—indicates that monetary policy may remain tight.
United States: inflation, employment and jobless claims
On the US side, the data are more uncertain. Initial weekly jobless claims currently stand around 218,000 (as of 20 September 2025), down from the previous week (232,000) and from last year (222,000). However, due to the federal shutdown, some indicators—such as October 2025 CPI and non-farm payrolls—may be delayed or even missing.
Interpretation: the US labor market still appears solid in the short term, a sign to the Fed that unemployment is not rising sharply. However, uncertainty regarding inflation and consumer trends—caused by the lack of updated official data—adds risk. If inflation turns out higher than expected (or fails to decline) and employment remains strong, the Fed will have limited room to cut rates.
Hypothesis on the Fed’s December decision
At present, my expectation is that the Fed will not cut rates in the December meeting—or will do so only if clearly weak inflation and employment data emerge beforehand. The reasons:
• Persistently low jobless claims indicate a labor market that is not under strain.
• Inflation uncertainty weighs heavily: without a clear move toward target, the Fed will remain cautious.
• Liquidity context: with the end of the US shutdown, liquidity may return to the system and support markets, but this alone is not enough to push the Fed toward a rate cut if prices remain high.
If the Fed does not cut rates, we can expect upward pressure on bond yields and a possible strengthening of the US dollar, with consequences for equity markets and safe-haven assets.
Market impacts: equities, gold and safe havens
• Equities: Without a rate cut, global equities may react negatively or only moderately. Investors hoping for a “year-end gift” from the Fed may need to reassess expectations. In Europe, weak growth could weigh on cyclical stocks; in the US, equities will have to absorb the absence of new stimulus.
• Gold and safe-haven assets: If the Fed holds rates steady, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases (higher real yields), potentially limiting its performance. However, uncertainty—both inflationary and economic—may sustain demand for safe havens, meaning that gold and other defensive assets could hold up well or even rise in a scenario of weak growth combined with tight monetary policy.
• Euro and pound: Weak growth in the Eurozone and UK may weigh on the euro and the pound, especially if the Fed remains hawkish and the dollar strengthens. This keeps open the possibility of notable currency movements.
The information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Any investment decision involves risks and should be made after consulting a qualified professional who can assess your individual profile.