Gold: Between All-Time Highs and New Prospects

Gold: Between All-Time Highs and New Prospects

Bullish Outlook Supported by Institutional Demand and Geopolitical Context – Technical Scenario and Key Levels to Watch

In recent months, gold has continued to shine in the markets, attracting both investors and analysts. With 44 consecutive weeks of growth, the yellow metal reached an all-time high of $3,500/ounce on April 14. Since then, the price has entered a consolidation phase, fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,450.

This pause, however, does not seem to have altered the underlying trend: many signals indicate that the bullish momentum in gold could continue.

Who Is Buying Gold? – Central Banks at the Forefront

• Central banks continue to lead institutional demand: in 2024, they purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold, marking the third consecutive year at such levels. Projections from Metals Focus suggest a similar figure for 2025.
• The People’s Bank of China has extended its gold purchases for nine consecutive months up to July, raising its reserves to about 73.96 million troy ounces, with an estimated value of $243.99 billion.
• Poland, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and others have also increased their gold reserves during 2025.
• This strong interest reflects a strategic approach: diversifying reserves away from a weakening US dollar, protecting against uncertainty, and strengthening financial stability.

Production and Supply: How Is Mining Progressing?

• In 2024, global gold production was estimated at 3,300 tonnes, an increase compared to the previous year.
• In 2025, production has remained high, with estimates around 3,200 tonnes.
• The main gold-producing countries in 2024 were China, Russia, Australia, Canada, and the United States, which together accounted for about 41% of global production.

Technical Analysis: Why the Bullish Trend Is Still Alive

Even though the price has been moving sideways since April, several technical factors keep the outlook positive:

• Long-term trend intact – The weekly chart structure shows higher highs and higher lows, a classic sign of strength.

• Solid support around $3,250 – Tested multiple times, it has rejected downward attempts, confirming strong buying interest at this level.

• Positive momentum (CCI) – The Commodity Channel Index remains in positive territory (currently at 102), still indicating bullish pressure, though overbought signals should be monitored.

• Bollinger Bands – The recent touch of the lower daily band around $3,300 triggered a rebound, suggesting that selling pressure is still meeting a solid counterforce from buyers.

Most probable technical scenario:
A move back towards the $3,450–$3,500 area, with the potential for new all-time highs if buying volume increases beyond current resistance.

Geopolitical Analysis: The Role of Global Uncertainty

Gold has historically been considered a safe-haven asset: when equity or currency markets are unstable, investors seek protection in solid assets.
Today, several factors are fueling this demand:

• Tariff tensions between the United States and Asia, creating uncertainty over international trade.

• Currency volatility in some emerging economies, pushing local savers toward stable assets.

• More accommodative monetary policies by certain central banks, which reduce bond yields and increase gold’s appeal.

All these elements help keep demand high and prices supported.

Key Levels to Watch

While the bullish trend remains solid, every trader knows it is crucial to identify warning points:

• Above $3,443 – Likely continuation toward the all-time high of $3,500 and a possible bullish breakout.

• Around $3,329 – An intermediate level that has already shown support after the recent pullback; caution is advised, as a drop below this level could give the bears fresh momentum.

• Below $3,281 – A significant weakening of the trend, with possible declines toward $3,150–$3,100.

In Summary

The current gold outlook remains structurally bullish. The combination of positive technical signals and a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty supports the continuation of the bullish trend.
However, respecting key guard levels is essential to avoid surprises and manage risk wisely.

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