Trump’s Tariffs at a Crossroads: Update September 9

Trump’s Tariffs at a Crossroads: Update as of September 9, 2025

Markets Await the Supreme Court, Selective Rally in Retail and Export Stocks

Legal and Market Context

• The decisions of the CIT and the Federal Circuit declared most tariffs imposed via IEEPA illegal; their effectiveness is suspended until October 14, 2025, the deadline by which the White House can request a stay from the Supreme Court.
• Section 232 tariffs (steel/aluminum) and Section 301 tariffs (China) were not affected and remain in place.
• Since early September, traders have priced in a higher probability of an IEEPA rollback, offering a tactical benefit to import-intensive stocks and certain Asian exporters.

Technical Analysis (updated values)

Note: readings on the daily timeframe; dynamic levels to be monitored.

Wayfair (W)

• CCI: 217 → strong overbought (extended move).
• RSI: 70 → overbought zone, risk of pullback.
• EMA20–50 plan: as long as EMA20 ≥ EMA50, maintain; first full close below EMA20 with RSI < 65 = lighten up; bearish cross 20<50 = reduce/exit.
• Position management: those who entered on Sept 1 should hold with a 7–8% trailing stop from the relative high, or alternatively ATR(14) x 2.

Best Buy (BBY)

• CCI: 146 → strong momentum, but less extreme.
• RSI: 65 → not yet overbought, but close.
• EMA20–50 plan: bias long as long as 20>50; first close < EMA20 with RSI < 60 = partial cut; 20<50 = tactical exit.
• Trailing stop: 5–6% or ATR(14) x 1.7.

Alibaba (9988.HK)

• CCI: 174 → strong momentum.
• RSI: 70 → in overbought, likely pause.
• EMA20–50 plan: maintain bullish bias if 20≥50; take profit on spikes >2σ above EMA20; reduce if 20 flattens and price < EMA20 for 2 consecutive sessions.
• Trailing stop: ~6% or ATR(14) x 1.8.

Sony (6758.T)

• CCI: 116 → positive trend, less stretched.
• RSI: 63 → still below overbought.
• EMA20–50 plan: constructive scenario with 20 approaching/above 50; entry/add preferable on pullbacks toward EMA20 with RSI 55–60.
• Trailing stop: ~5% or ATR(14) x 1.5.

Common Practical Rules

• Avoid new “at market” entries when RSI≥70: prefer pullbacks toward EMA20.
• Move the trailing stop higher after each new significant high (swing high).
• If volatility rises due to legal/news headlines, prefer wider percentage stops or ATR-based stops.

Macro: Why Stay Tactical

A potential rollback of IEEPA tariffs would have a disinflationary impact (cheaper imports, stronger retail margins) and support risk-on positioning; on the contrary, a Supreme Court stay would prolong uncertainty and increase volatility precisely in the names above. Until October 14, the optimal approach remains trend-following with profit protection.

Final Note – Performance Sept 1 → Sept 9, 2025

Based on prices from Sept 1 to Sept 9:

• Wayfair: +12.4%
• Best Buy: +6.8%
• Alibaba: +4.1%
• Sony: +3.6%
  Equal-weighted portfolio: +6.7% in 7 sessions.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Investment decisions carry risks and are the sole responsibility of the reader. Please assess your own risk profile and, if necessary, consult a licensed financial advisor.