Nasdaq and Gold: Weekly Analysis and Outlook

Updated: September 29, 2026

Nasdaq and gold start the week lower

On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92%, closing at 26,820.38. Spot gold lost 3.61% to $4,131.53 an ounce, after touching $4,110.55—its lowest level since August 5. Today the metal is edging up to  $4,130.

Pressure is coming from the bond market: in early European trading, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.254%, close to Monday’s peak of 5.274%, while Brent crude topped $107 a barrel. Higher yields make equities relatively less attractive and raise the rate used to discount future earnings, putting particular pressure on technology stocks, whose valuations also reflect expectations for future growth. Nvidia’s 1.7% gain, supported by a $150 billion increase in its share buyback plan, provided some offset but did not prevent the index from falling.

Why gold is struggling despite geopolitical risk

Gold pays no interest. When bond yields rise and the dollar strengthens, holding the metal becomes less attractive. At the same time, oil-related tensions are fuelling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Fed will keep policy restrictive. According to latest markets assign a 72.5% probability to another rate increase in October, up from 57.6% a week earlier. Safe-haven demand may cushion selling, but for now the opportunity cost of holding gold and the stronger dollar are outweighing it.

Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk for both assets. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. and Iranian officials have held separate talks with mediators. Without concrete progress, uncertainty over supply continues to support oil prices and complicate the inflation outlook.

U.S. data to watch through Friday

Today, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index of July home prices is due at 3:00 p.m. CEST. At 4:00 p.m., markets will get the August JOLTS job openings report and the Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index. The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York survey puts job openings at around 7.23 million, compared with 7.27 million previously. Consumer confidence is forecast at roughly 90–91, following August’s reading of 89.4.

On Wednesday, August PCE data—the inflation measure followed by the Fed—could point to a faster monthly increase. Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts call for a 0.5% rise in the overall index and 0.3% in core PCE. Friday brings the September employment report: available surveys point to roughly 84,000–98,000 new jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.

Nasdaq and gold outlook through Friday

The Nasdaq outlook remains volatile, with a modestly bearish bias. Yields near their highs and expensive oil could continue to weigh on technology valuations. A stronger-than-expected PCE reading or jobs report would add to that pressure. Weaker data, on the other hand, could temper rate expectations and trigger a rebound, especially if developments in the Middle East point to de-escalation.

The near-term outlook for gold remains fragile, with a possible retest of Monday’s low around $4,110 if yields and the dollar stay firm. Cooling inflation or labor-market data—or diplomatic progress that pushes oil prices lower—could support a recovery. These scenarios are conditional: the PCE report and Friday’s payrolls data could quickly change the outlook.

Disclaimer — This is informational analysis, not financial advice. These forecasts are conditional on the data and news available as of September 29, 2026.