Nasdaq 100: A Fragile Rebound Amid AI and Geopolitics

Updated November 12, 2026. The Nasdaq 100 closed Wednesday at 28,374.25 points, up 2.28%. Historical data confirm the closing level and the percentage change; the Nasdaq overview page displays an inconsistent percentage field, so this analysis uses the historical data.

The rebound finds support in AI

The recovery came after heavy selling last week, driven by doubts about the profitability of artificial intelligence investment. CoreWeave’s results, with revenue exceeding its previous guidance, helped bring buyers back to AI-related stocks and semiconductor shares. The Nasdaq 100 recovered much of its weekly decline, but the recent correction and crowded positioning in the sector call for caution: one positive session does not yet show that selling pressure has ended.

Attention remains focused on Nvidia today. Some news reports have mentioned a possible discussion about the company’s leadership and political scrutiny linked to chip exports to China. These reports do not amount to an official company decision. Given Nvidia’s significant influence on the index, however, any confirmation or denial could still trigger sharp moves across the sector.

Midterms: the political landscape shifts

Democrats have won control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections. For the technology sector, attention is turning to possible oversight initiatives, artificial intelligence regulation and semiconductor export controls. This is a significant policy shift, but its impact on stocks will depend on the specific proposals and how quickly they are implemented.

Iran, Ukraine and oil

Oil prices fell in early trading on Thursday as markets assessed the prospects for diplomatic progress in the Middle East and in Russia–Ukraine talks. Disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to temper optimism. For the Nasdaq, lower energy prices could ease inflationary pressure. A renewed increase in geopolitical risk, however, could push oil prices higher and make interest rate expectations more uncertain.

Technical levels and outlook for the week

Wednesday’s session recorded a low of 28,102.75 and a high of 28,593.52. The 28,100–28,000 area is the nearest support zone to watch; a confirmed break below it would increase the risk of another test of recent lows. On the upside, the session high near 28,600 is the first resistance to overcome. These are reference levels based on recent prices, not thresholds that can predict the market’s direction with certainty.

Base case: the rebound is under way, but remains vulnerable. Holding above the 28,100 area, with semiconductor stocks participating, would make stabilization more credible. If Nvidia or other leading stocks come under renewed pressure, or economic data revive concerns about interest rates, the recovery could lose momentum.

Today’s releases include initial jobless claims and existing home sales in the United States, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Italian time, respectively. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Friday. Markets will also follow Applied Materials and Cisco earnings tonight: orders, margins and guidance for the next few quarters will help assess demand for AI infrastructure and technology spending.

In summary: the Nasdaq 100 has recovered ground as buyers returned to AI-related stocks, but technical confirmation is still lacking. Elections, geopolitical tensions, yields and corporate earnings could determine whether the rebound continues or proves to be a pause in the correction.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only. It is not personalized financial advice or an invitation to invest. Futures and CFDs carry significant risks, including the effects of leverage.